The impact of wildtype SARS-CoV-2 on fatigue and quality of life: prevalence of post COVID-19 condition in a Dutch population-based serosurveillance cohort. (preprint)

Background: Our aim was to assess the relationship between (time since) wild-type SARS-CoV-2 infection and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and fatigue as endpoints linked to Post COVID-19 condition (PCC). Methods: Participants [≥]15 years were selected from the February 2021 round of the population-based PIENTER Corona study. We investigated the association between (time since) SARS-COV-2 infection and health outcomes: HRQoL (health utility (SF-6D); physical health and mental health (both SF-12)) and fatigue (CIS-fatigue) using multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, educational level, number of comorbidities, COVID-19 vaccination status, and the intensity of restrictions. For each outcome, multivariable logistic regression models were fitted at cut-off points selected based on the cumulative distribution of those uninfected. Results: Results shown correspond to the cut-off point related to the worst off 15% of each outcome. Significant differences between those uninfected (n=4,614) and cases infected [≤]4 months ago (n=368) were observed for health utility (OR [95%CI]: 1.6 [1.2-2.2]), physical health (OR [95%CI]: 1.7 [1.3-2.3]) and fatigue (OR [95%CI]: 1.6 [1.2-2.0]), but not for mental health. There were no significant differences between uninfected and cases infected >4 months ago (n=345) for all outcomes. Conclusions: In a Dutch population-based cohort of seroconverted individuals, those infected with wild-type SARS-CoV-2 [≤]4 months ago more often reported poor health utility and physical health and were more often severely fatigued compared to those uninfected (at the 15% cut-off). HRQoL and fatigue remained below the detection limit for those infected >4 months ago, suggesting a relatively low prevalence of PCC.

Nationwide SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence Trends in the Netherlands in the Variant of Concern Era, 2021-2022: an Ongoing Prospective Cohort Study (preprint)

BackgroundRepeated population-based SARS-CoV-2 serosurveillance is key in complementing other surveillance tools. AimAssessing trends in infection- and/or vaccine-induced immunity, including breakthrough infections, among (sub)groups and regions in the Dutch population during the Variant of Concern (VOC)-era whilst varying levels of stringency, to evaluate population immunity dynamics and inform future pandemic response planning. MethodsIn this prospective population-based cohort, randomly-selected participants (n=9,985) aged 1-92 years (recruited since early-2020) donated home-collected fingerstick blood samples at six timepoints in 2021-2022, covering waves dominated by Alpha, Delta, and Omicron (BA.1, BA.2, BA.5). IgG antibody assessments against Spike-S1 and Nucleoprotein were combined with vaccination- and testing data to estimate infection-induced (inf) and total (infection- and vaccination-induced) seroprevalence. ResultsIn 2021, nationwide inf-seroprevalence rose modestly from 12% since Alpha to 26% amidst Delta, while total seroprevalence increased rapidly to nearly 90%, particularly fast in vulnerable groups (i.e., elderly and those with comorbidities). Highest infection rates were noticeable in adolescents and young adults, low/middle educated elderly, non-Western, contact professions (other than healthcare), and low-vaccination coverage regions. In 2022, following Omicron emergence, inf-seroprevalence elevated sharply to 62% and further to 86%, with frequent breakthrough infections and reduction of seroprevalence dissimilarities between most groups. Whereas >90% of <60-year-olds had been infected, 30% of vaccinated vulnerable individuals had not acquired hybrid immunity. ConclusionAlthough total SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence had increased rapidly, infection rates were unequally distributed within the Dutch population. Ongoing tailored vaccination efforts and (sero-)monitoring of vulnerable groups remain important given their lowest rate of hybrid immunity and highest susceptibility to severe disease.

High-resolution African HLA resource uncoversHLA-DRB1expression effects underlying vaccine response (preprint)

How human genetic variation contributes to vaccine immunogenicity and effectiveness is unclear, particularly in infants from Africa. We undertook genome-wide association analyses of eight vaccine antibody responses in 2,499 infants from three African countries and identified significant associations across the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) locus for five antigens spanning pertussis, diphtheria and hepatitis B vaccines. Using high-resolution HLA typing in 1,706 individuals from 11 African populations we constructed a continental imputation resource to fine-map signals of association across the class II HLA observing genetic variation explaining up to 10% of the observed variance in antibody responses. Using follicular helper T-cell assays, in silico binding, and immune cell eQTL datasets we find evidence of HLA-DRB1 expression correlating with serological response and inferred protection from pertussis following vaccination. This work improves our understanding of molecular mechanisms underlying HLA associations that should support vaccine design and development across Africa with wider global relevance. Teaser High-resolution typing of HLA diversity provides mechanistic insights into differential potency and inferred effectiveness of vaccines across Africa.

Reduced antibody acquisition with increasing age following vaccination with BNT162b2: results from a large study performed in the general population aged 12 to 92 years (preprint)

Vaccine-induced protection of the population against severe COVID-19, hospitalization and death is of utmost importance, especially in the elderly. However, limited data are available on humoral immune responses following COVID-19 vaccination in the general population across a broad age range. We performed an integrated analysis of the effect of age, sex and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection on Spike S1-specific (S1) IgG concentrations up to three months post BNT162b2 vaccination. 1,735 persons, eligible for COVID-19 vaccination through the national program, were recruited from the general population (12 to 92 years old). Sixty percent were female and the median vaccination interval was 35 days (interquartile range, IQR: 35-35). All participants had seroconverted to S1 one month after two doses of vaccine. S1 IgG was higher in participants with a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection (median: 4,535 BAU/ml, IQR: 2,341-7,205) compared to infection-naive persons (1,842 BAU/ml, 1,019-3,116) after two doses, p<0.001. In infection-naive persons, linear mixed effects regression showed a strong negative association between age and S1 IgG one month after the first vaccination (p<0.001) across the entire age range. The association was still present after the second vaccination, but less pronounced. Females had higher S1 IgG than males after both the first and second vaccination (p<0.001); although this difference was lower after the second dose. In persons with an infection history, age nor sex was associated with peak S1 IgG. As IgG decreased with age and time since vaccination, older persons may become at risk of infection, especially with escape variants such as Omicron.

Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of a nationwide serosurvey in the Netherlands (preprint)

BackgroundThe proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positive persons who are asymptomatic - and whether this proportion is age-dependent - are still open research questions. Because an unknown proportion of reported symptoms among SARS-CoV-2 positives will be attributable to another infection or affliction, the observed, or crude proportion without symptoms may underestimate the proportion of persons without symptoms that are caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. MethodsBased on a large population-based serological study comprising test results on seropositivity and self-reported symptom history conducted in April/May 2020 in the Netherlands (n=3147), we estimated the proportion of reported symptoms among those persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 that is attributable to this infection, where the set of relevant symptoms fulfills the ECDC case definition of COVID-19, using inferential methods for the attributable risk (AR). Generalised additive regression modelling was used to estimate the age-dependent relative risk (RR) of reported symptoms, and the AR and asymptomatic proportion (AP) were calculated from the fitted RR. ResultsUsing age-aggregated data, the estimated AP was 70% (95% CI: 65-77%). The estimated AP decreased with age, from 80% (95% CI: 67-100%) for the <20 years age-group, to 55% (95% CI: 48-68%) for the 70+ years age-group. ConclusionWhereas the crude AP represents a lower bound for the proportion of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 without COVID-19 symptoms, the AP as estimated via an attributable risk approach represents an upper bound. Age-specific AP estimates can inform the implementation of public health actions such as targetted virological testing and therefore enhance containment strategies.

Associations between measures of social distancing and SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity: a nationwide population-based study in the Netherlands (preprint)

ABSTRACT This large nationwide population-based seroepidemiological study provides evidence on the effectiveness of physical distancing (>1.5m) and indoor group size reductions on SARS-CoV-2 infection. Additionally, young adults seem to play a significant role in viral spread, opposed to children up until the primary school age with whom close contact is permitted.

The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya (preprint)

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region. MethodsCombining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreaks when contact-reducing COVID-19 interventions are lifted. We considered various scenarios for reduced measles vaccination coverage from April 2020. FindingsIn February 2020, when a scheduled SIA was postponed, population immunity was close to the herd immunity threshold and the probability of a large outbreak was 22% (0-46). As the COVID-19 restrictions to physical contact are lifted, from December 2020, the probability of a large measles outbreak increased to 31% (8-51), 35% (16-52) and 43% (31-56) assuming a 15%, 50% and 100% reduction in measles vaccination coverage. By December 2021, this risk increases further to 37% (17-54), 44% (29-57) and 57% (48-65) for the same coverage scenarios respectively. However, the increased risk of a measles outbreak following the lifting of restrictions on contact can be overcome by conducting an SIA with [≥] 95% coverage in under-fives. InterpretationWhile contact restrictions sufficient for SAR-CoV-2 control temporarily reduce measles transmissibility and the risk of an outbreak from a measles immunity gap, this risk rises rapidly once physical distancing is relaxed. Implementing delayed SIAs will be critical for prevention of measles outbreaks once contact restrictions are fully lifted in Kenya. FundingThe United Kingdoms Medical Research Council and the Department for International Development

The impact of physical distancing measures against COVID-19 transmission on contacts and mixing patterns in the Netherlands: repeated cross-sectional surveys (preprint)

BackgroundDuring the current pandemic of coronavirus (COVID-19) many countries have taken drastic measures to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV2. The measures often include physical distancing that aims to reduce the number of contacts in the population. Little is known about the actual reduction in number of contacts as a consequence of physical distancing measures. MethodsIn the Netherlands, a cross-sectional survey was carried out in 2016/2017 in which 8179 participants retrospectively reported the number, age and gender of different persons they had contacted (spoken to in person or touched) during the previous day. The survey was repeated among 2830 of the original participants, using the same questionnaire, in March and April 2020 after physical distancing measures had been implemented. ResultsThe average number of contacts in the community was reduced from on average 12.5 (interquartile range: 2-17) to 3.7 (interquartile range: 0-4) different persons per participant, a reduction of 71% (95% confidence interval: 71-71). The reduction in the number of community contacts was highest for children and adolescents (between 5 and 20 years) and smallest for elderly persons of 80 years and older. The reduction in the effective number of total contacts, measured as the largest eigenvalue of the matrix with community and household contacts, was 62% (95% confidence interval: 48 - 72). ConclusionThe substantial reduction in contacts has contributed greatly in halting the COVID-19 epidemic. This reduction was unevenly distributed over age groups, household sizes and occupations. These findings offer guidance for the lifting of age-group targeted measures.